MQG Share Price: Live ASX Quote, Forecast & Analysis

Macquarie Group (ASX:MQG) has been through a wild ride. After shedding more than 6% in a single session earlier this year, the investment banking giant now trades in the mid-230s — and analysts are sharply divided on whether that’s a bargain or still too rich. With fair value estimates scattered across a wide range and price targets stretching from A$207 to A$280, there’s plenty of conflicting signals for investors trying to decide what to do next.

Current Price: 237.80 AUD · Daily Change: +1.16% · Exchange: ASX · Ticker: MQG.AX · Recent Drop: ~6%

Is MQG a good buy now?

The honest answer depends on who you ask — and which model they’re using. Some analysts see clear upside from current levels, while valuation-focused platforms suggest the stock may still be discounting more growth than is realistic.

Analyst ratings

MarketScreener reports a mean consensus rating of OUTPERFORM, with an average price target of 240.03 AUD — just 0.77% above the last close of 238.19 AUD (MarketScreener). TipRanks places its average price target at AU$238.82 with a high of AU$270.00 and low of AU$218.50 (TipRanks).

The spread between high and low targets is significant — roughly 50 AUD per share separates the most bullish from the most bearish analyst views. That wide range itself tells you something: there’s genuine disagreement about MQG’s earnings trajectory.

Recent performance factors

Macquarie Group shares declined 6.07% to AUD 200.53 on 2 March 2026, driven by elevated geopolitical tensions, global market uncertainty, and a reassessment of November 2025 half-year results (Kalkine). The company had shed more than 5% over the prior month before that session. Since then, the stock has recovered most of that ground — closing at 238.19 AUD on 1 May 2026, up 1.32% in a single session (Stockopedia).

What is the fair value of MQG?

Fair value estimates for MQG span a remarkably wide range — from under 100 AUD to nearly 280 AUD depending on the methodology. That gap reflects fundamental disagreement about what growth rate the business can sustain.

Valuation models

ValueInvesting.io calculates a Peter Lynch Fair Value of 98.69 AUD for MQG.AX, suggesting the stock would need to fall roughly 54% to reach fair value from prices around 213–238 AUD (ValueInvesting.io). This model is notably bearish compared to market pricing.

Simply Wall St’s Excess Returns analysis arrives at a fair value of A$172.03 versus a recent market price around A$232, implying the stock may be overvalued by about 35% (Simply Wall St). Book value sits at A$94.51 per share with stable EPS around A$13.15, giving a Fair Ratio P/E of 22.29x versus the actual P/E of 23.41x — slightly stretched but not dramatically so.

Intrinsic value estimates

FINBOX places fair value at 237.74 AUD (Finbox), essentially in line with the current market price — suggesting the stock is fairly valued at present levels. Simply Wall St has published multiple revisions: analysts lifted the price target to A$280.73 linked to valuation support, then reduced it to A$207.58 expecting a broader earnings trough and slower recovery (Simply Wall St).

The implication is that valuation alone cannot answer the buy/sell question — investors must first decide which methodology they trust most.

Why did MQG shares fall?

The March 2026 drop was not an isolated event — it was the culmination of mounting pressure that had been building for months. Understanding the causes matters more than mourning the lost price.

Key drivers of the ~6% drop

Kalkine identifies three overlapping causes for the 2 March decline: elevated geopolitical tensions creating risk-off conditions globally, broader market uncertainty weighing on financial sector stocks, and — crucially — a reassessment of the November 2025 half-year results (Kalkine). Those half-year results had underwhelmed investors when released, but the market took several months to fully reprice the stock accordingly.

MQG’s market cap sat at approximately AUD 81.36 billion as of early March 2026, and the stock was trading on a P/E of 21.61x with a dividend yield of 3.13% (Kalkine). At those multiples, even modest earnings disappointments can trigger meaningful re-rating.

Market context

The timing coincided with a broader risk-off rotation in global markets. Financial sector stocks — particularly those with investment banking and advisory revenue exposure like Macquarie — tend to amplify macro moves because their earnings are highly cyclical and dependent on deal activity. The StockInvest.us technical analysis flagged a sell signal from a pivot top on 4 July 2025, with the stock subsequently down 6.53% since (StockInvest.us).

The catch: MQG’s macro sensitivity cuts both ways on the rebound, meaning investors must accept elevated volatility regardless of direction.

Is MQG a buy, sell, or hold?

The consensus view is cautiously positive, but with enough dissension to give thoughtful investors room to make their own case. Here’s how the major frameworks land.

Technical analysis

Stockopedia shows the current P/E ratio (forward) at 18.87 with PEG at 2.29, EPS growth (forward) of 8.99%, and a dividend yield (forward) of 3.34% (Stockopedia). Price to Book sits at 2.52 and Price to Tangible Book at 2.66. The analyst consensus target price on Stockopedia is AU$242.49, approximately 1.81% above the last close of AU$238.19.

Fundamental outlook

Wall Street analysts’ average 1-year price target for MQG stands at 236.28 AUD, with a low of 210.82 and high of 267.75 AUD (Alpha Spread). Fintel reports an average one-year target of $240.17 with a range from $212.10 to $267.75 (Fintel). The EPS consensus forecast for next financial year sits at AU$11.59 (Stockopedia).

“With the market price of 213.48 AUD and our fair value calculation, Macquarie Group Ltd (MQG.AX) is not a good investment.”

— ValueInvesting.io (Valuation Platform)

“Our Excess Returns analysis suggests Macquarie Group may be overvalued by 35.0%.”

— Simply Wall St (Stock Analysis Platform)

MQG Forecast — Price Target — Prediction for 2027

Forward-looking price targets for MQG extend through 2027, though the further out you look, the wider the uncertainty band becomes. Here’s what the models say.

Short-term vs long-term targets

StockInvest.us places a short-term forecast of a 14.06% rise in 3 months to a range of $244.27–$269.22 AUD (StockInvest.us). The 1-year targets cluster tightly around 236–242 AUD across Alpha Spread, Fintel, TipRanks, and MarketScreener — suggesting limited consensus upside from today’s levels over a 12-month horizon.

TradingView predictions

For 2027 and beyond, analysts tracking MQG point to the company’s earnings growth trajectory as the primary driver. With forward EPS forecast at AU$11.59 and EPS growth (forward) at 8.99%, MQG needs consistent earnings expansion to justify current multiples. If interest rates remain elevated and deal activity stays subdued, upside to analyst targets may be limited.

The critical question for long-term investors is whether Macquarie’s diversified revenue streams — spanning advisory, capital markets, lending, and investment management — can sustain 8–9% annual EPS growth. If so, current prices around 237–238 AUD could represent reasonable value over a 2–3 year holding period.

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Investors analyzing MQG’s recent dip and fair value can explore the live ASX forecast analysis for aligned analyst views and projections through 2027.

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